In the never ending search for understanding volleyball just a tiny bit better than I did yesterday, I have been looking at different ways to measure attack. Obviously, I am not satisfied with the current way (kill percentage / attack efficiency). Kill percentage is pretty good because you have to win points to win a match, so there is something important there. Many people maintain that attack efficiency is more important. However, attack efficiency says that 50% kills and 20% errors is the same as 40% kills and 10% errors. It is obviously not. In addition, using only these numbers ignores the 30-40% of attacks that don’t finish the rally. Those attacks must be worth something.
So I started thinking and looking at something that was easy to measure and came up with ‘new’ statistic: rally win rate. The rally win rate is the percentage of rallies won in which the team made any attack. Each rally is counted only once, so if there were three attacks in that rally, AND the team won, the rally win rate would be 1 or 100%, even if none of those attacks made a direct point. The logic being that the quality of the attack that is not a point influences the outcome of the rally, either positively or negatively.
If you don’t follow, here is an example. A spiker spikes a ball into the block, his team covers, he hits again and this time scores. His kill percentage is 50% (1/2), his efficiency is 50% ((1-0)/2) and his rally win rate is 100% (1 rally won / 1 rally with at least 1 spike attempt). If in the next rally he spikes into the net, his kill percentage is 33% (1/3), his efficiency is 0% ((1-1)/3) and his rally win rate is 50% (1 rally won / 2 rallies with at least 1 spike attempt).
In another example, a spiker spikes, the opponent defends but can only spike a high ball which is blocked by his team. Kill percentage is 0%, efficiency 0%, rally win rate 100%. And so on and so on.
In the next couple of days, I will test this out and see how it works.
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