Posted by I have never liked the attack efficiency statistic. Part of this is my simple observation that (some) players will increase their efficiency by avoiding errors, and in some cases avoiding spiking altogether. Part of it is that I don’t consider a blocked ball to be an error. Part of it is that efficiency misses a lot of information, ie what happened to the rest of the attacks that didn’t end the rally. Partly it is something in my soul that doesn’t like conservatism to be rewarded. I have proposed (and use day to day) a different attack statistic.
One recent development in men’s volleyball has been the reduction in attack from the right side of the court, ie the opposite. This is especially apparent in high ball situations where in many teams the opposites role becomes to cover for the position 4 attacker who tries to recycle, and then maybe get a fast ball after that. The logic is that the high ball attack from position 4 is more efficient and more manageable. And I suspect feeling that outside hitters are more skilled and therefore more able to be efficient and manage high balls. I have tested the numbers at different times and found that high balls in different positions have very (,very) similar success rates. Let me show you, with data from 2023 VNL, as always using Science Untangled apps.
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For the unitiated, V5 is a high ball from position 4, V6 is a high ball from position 2 and V8 a high ball from position 1. Let’s start from the left and work our way across.
Firstly, as we are analysts here, we have to note that there are a lot more attacks from position 4. And that is what we note immediately that we see that high balls from position 1 win the most points outright. Small sample size, we can’t take that seriously, something can’t be quite right. Let’s move across two columns to efficiency. That makes more sense. A high ball in position 4 is much more efficient that the other positions. Case closed. Set everything to 4, and let’s practice recycling.
But there is something still nagging at me. Maybe there is some more information I can use. (Spoiler alert: with Science Untangled there is always more information you can use). Sure enough, there it is. The Rally Win Rate shows less than 1% difference. Where I choose to set the high ball makes virtually no difference to my chance of winning the rally. Attack Efficiency lied.
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Maybe it did, and maybe it didn’t. A high ball situation is the single play in volleyball that the simplest easy solution will almost certainly lead to the best outcome. There is no need to overthink it. Have the closest player set the ball to the closest attacker. That is the situation most likely to create the best attacking opportunity. And that is more important than anything else.
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